Stock returns and real activity in the G-7 countries: did the relationship change during the 1980s?

The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 44 (2004) 237–252

Several empirical studies show that a substantial fraction of the changes in growth rates of real activity can be explained by lagged aggregate stock return variations in the U.S. as well as in other G-7 countries from the 1950s to the 1990s. However, the results presented in Binswanger.[International Review of Economics and Finance 9 (2000) 387] indicate that this traditionally strong relation has disappeared in the U.S. in the early 1980s. This paper shows that a similar breakdown occurred in Canada, Japan and in an aggregate economy consisting of the four European G-7 countries. The results provide evidence in favor of the hypothesis that speculative bubbles during the 1980s and 1990s were an international phenomenon. © 2003 Board of Trustees of the University of Illinois. All rights reserved.

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